Arnold Puyok: Analysing The Sabah Election 2008 - 40.69% voted Opposition

Arnold Puyok: Analysing The Sabah Election 2008

This article is based on one written by Sabahan academician Arnold Puyok which appeared in Bintulu.Org, a Sarawak cyber daily today.

The 2008 Malaysian General Election saw the BN (Barisan Nasional or National Front) returned to power with less than a two-thirds majority. It has been observed that this is BN’s worst electoral outing since 1969. The situation is rather different in Sabah, one of the thirteen states in Malaysia, in which BN managed to almost make a clean sweep and thus deny the opposition any chance to make inroads.

Even though it was initially observed that the opposition led by PKR (People’s Justice Party, whose Sabah chapter is a breakaway from BN parties PBS, Upko, PBRS, Sapp, LDP, Umno, MCA and Gerakan) could deny BN a major victory in Sabah, the election results indicate otherwise. At the outset, a major portion of the electorate in Sabah has renewed its support for BN, following the trend in 2004.

At the national level, the BN suffered a major setback since 1969 after failing to retain its two-thirds majority win. The BN even failed to obtain a majority of popular votes cast in Peninsular Malaysia. It only obtained 49 per cent of the popular votes cast compared to the opposition 51 per cent. Of the 140 seats the BN won, 54 came from Sabah and Sarawak. So without the contribution of Sabah and Sarawak, the BN would not have obtained a simple majority.

The opposition also managed to increase its seats in parliament from 12 to 82. The BN, however, won impressively in Sabah and Sarawak. Of the 25 parliamentary and 60 state seats contested in Sabah, the BN won 24 and 59 respectively. In Sarawak, the opposition was clearly decimated where it only won one seat in its stronghold Bandar Kuching compared to the BN 30 seats.

For analytical purposes, we shall divide all the contested parliamentary and state seats in Sabah into four broad categories namely Non-Muslim Natives (NMN), Chinese, Muslim Natives (MN) and mixed areas. From there, we shall analyse the performances of the parties contesting with respect to the popular votes cast and the number of seats won. Where necessary, a comparison with the results in 2004 is also made.

The BN won all the six parliamentary seats in NMN (Kadazandusun and Murut) areas including Pensiangan where it was won uncontested by Joseph Kurup (BN-PBRS) [Results have just been nullified and a by-election will be coming soon]. In terms of popular votes, the BN obtained 58.68 per cent compared to the combined opposition votes 36.4 per cent. Both the BN and opposition had their share of popular votes down by 1.2 and 3.71 per cent respectively. The BN component parties of PBS and Upko shared the number of popular votes at 24.55 per cent and 25.33 per cent respectively while Umno [Sabah chapter of Umno is a merger of ex-parties Berjaya and Usno] only 8.79 per cent. In 2004, PBS obtained 59.88 per cent while the opposition and independents combined obtained 40.11 per cent. The bulk of the opposition votes went to PKR (35.02 per cent), followed by Bersekutu [Umno breakaway] (0.86 per cent) and DAP (0.51 per cent). The remaining 4.91 per cent went to the independent candidates.

At the state level, the BN won all the 13 NMN seats, collecting about 59.81 per cent of the popular votes compared to the opposition combined, 34.56 per cent. In 2004, the BN obtained 57.88 per cent of the popular votes while the opposition had 42.09 per cent. At the individual party level, the PKR managed to collect about 33.59 per cent compared to the PBS’ 32.91 per cent. The share of the votes obtained by Upko and PBRS is just 17.54 per cent and 4.82 per cent respectively.

Interestingly, the opposition could have denied the BN a huge majority in a number of areas had it successfully persuaded the independent candidates not to contest. For example in Tandek, the combined votes of the PKR candidate with that of the independent’s and Bersekutu’s could have reduced the BN’s majority to just 245. In Bingkor, PKR chief Jeffrey Kitingan could have won the seat had the independent chosen not to contest. The BN’s majority in Bingkor is only 122. In 2004, Jeffrey was almost able to wrest the seat from Kurup with a 143-vote difference.

The results show that the Christian Kadazandusun and Murut voters did not totally reject the opposition’s brand of politics which some quarters say is irrelevant to local people. But one cannot deny the fact that these voters want local-based parties such as PBS and Upko to represent them at the federal level. At the state level, the opposition performed slightly better on an individual party basis, looking at the number of popular votes it obtained (33.59 per cent) compared to the major BN party, PBS, 32.01 per cent.

This could be attributed to two reasons. First, many saw PBS as gradually losing its image as “champion” to the Christian Kadazandusun and Murut and state rights. They might also want an opposition voice in the legislative assembly which the PBS and other state BN parties failed to provide. Second, PBS chief Pairin Kitingan’s silence on a number of pressing local issues such as fake ICs and illegal immigrants since becoming a “BN man” (as the opposition called him) has slightly affected his reputation as Huguan Siou (Paramount Leader) of the Kadazandusun and Murut people. Jeffrey’s scathing attack on Pairin’s character as well as his revelation of Umno chief Musa Aman’s alleged corrupt practices might also contribute to the swing of the Christian Kadazandusun and Murut votes.

All the BN NMN-based parties campaigned along the issues of development and continuity. The PBS chose to depart from its strong Christian Kadazandusun and Murut outlook while Upko emerged to become a “new” champion of the Christian Kadazandusun and Murut community. The Upko vowed to fight for the Kadazandusun and Murut rights as it is the only “pure” Kadazandusun and Murut party in the state. It even stated that it had “[stuck] its neck out” in speaking about the Kadazandusuns’ and Muruts’ social problems in Sabah. The PBS, long associated with the Christian Kadazandusun and Murut, chose to play “safe politics” as it had a painful experience being in the opposition until it was re-admitted into BN in 2002.

The PBRS’ electoral strength particularly at the parliamentary level is generally untested because it won the Pensiangan seat uncontested. Despite the win, the PBRS president Joseph Kurup would have to face a lot of uncertainties ahead as there is a strong possibility that a by-election would be called in Pensiangan. Unlike in Pairin’s and Upko chief Bernard Dompok’s case, Kurup had to choose the “hard way” to remain in power, that is, not to re-nominate the popular incumbent in Pensiangan Bernard Maraat whom he saw as the type of leader “who likes to work alone”.

At one time, Maraat vowed to contest as an independent but changed his mind later. To say which among the NMN-based parties is most popular among the NMN voters warrants another close observation but PBS has the advantage because many NMN still regard Pairin as a symbol of unity and strength due to his role as Huguan Siou and president of the Kadazandusun Cultural Association (KDCA).

The Chinese support for the opposition appeared to be strong in urban areas. The popular votes obtained by the opposition in the parliamentary seats of Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan is 57.41 per cent compared to the BN 35.62 per cent. Overall, the popular Chinese votes gained by the opposition saw an increase by 13.76 per cent. Both the DAP and PKR candidates managed to defeat the BN candidate with a majority of more than 1000 and 900 votes respectively. Had the DAP, PKR and independents joined forces to face the BN, they could trounce the BN candidate with more than 10000 votes. The same scenario could be drawn in Sandakan which saw the LDP candidate facing a tough fight from the DAP and independents. Had the DAP and independents decided to contest as a single pact, they could have defeated the LDP with more than 2000 votes.

Even though the BN managed to win five of the six Chinese seats contested at the state level, the opposition’s performance could not be underestimated. The PKR, for instance, managed to deny a big majority to the PBS candidate in Api-Api who obtained only 174 votes while in several areas the huge number of votes obtained by the opposition showed that the Chinese voters were generally unhappy with the BN and that they were looking for a different party platform to represent them. The total votes obtained by the BN at the state level is 53 per cent while the opposition 49.99 per cent. Following the trend at the parliamentary level, the opposition votes at the state level also registered a significant increase of 18.91 per cent.

The opposition could have won another parliamentary seat and two state seats had it chosen to contest one-on-one with the BN.

Clearly, the Chinese voting pattern could be partly explained by the rational choice theory. Rational choice theorists hold that “voting decisions are based on cost-benefit analyses where voters match their individual issue preferences with party platforms”. The opposition’s promise to abolish affirmative action policies and to provide equal economic opportunities for all Malaysians irrespective of race and religion might be appealing to the Chinese community.

Other than that, the opposition’s promise to reform the country and to tackle the high cost of living particularly in urban areas could also contribute to the swing of the Chinese votes.

The BN remained strong in the MN (Muslim Kadazandusun, Bajau, Berunai and Murut) areas. It won all the 15 parliamentary seats contested (including the Kalabakan seat which was won uncontested) and obtained about 66.06 per cent of the popular votes compared to the opposition 27.25 per cent. A major share of the MN votes went to Umno (53.26 per cent), followed by PKR (24.12 per cent) and the independent candidates combined (6.67 per cent). The BN repeated the similar massive victory at the state level, winning all the 36 seats contested.

The popular votes the BN obtained is 68.78 per cent while the opposition had 27.58 per cent. Again, a major share of the popular votes went to Umno (63.61 per cent) while the PKR only managed to scrape through with 25.58 per cent.

Clearly, the MN electorate rejected the PKR as an alternative party. Despite the chorus of attacks on Musa’s leadership and Sabah Umno practising cronyism, the MN electorate solidly backed Musa and gave BN a convincing win. The MNs might not have any choice but to vote for the Umno as there is no credible MN-based party in Sabah.

Another observation is that non-Muslim voters become the decisive factor in ensuring victory for non-Muslim parties contesting in Muslim areas. For example in the Putatan, Batu Sapi and Tawau parliamentary seats. Putatan has a significant number of Christian Kadazandusun and Chinese voters (roughly 36.72 per cent) while Batu Sapi and Tawau have a substantial number of Chinese voters (37.33 per cent and 44.37 per cent respectively).

These reinforce the claim that the Christian Kadazandusun and Chinese voters outside the urban areas clearly rejected the opposition particularly the PKR. The same pattern is also obvious at the state level. Non-Muslim parties such as PBS and Upko managed to wrest the Tanjung Aru and Kuala Penyu seats respectively. Tanjung Aru has a strong Chinese population at 36.59 per cent while Kuala Penyu has a large number of Christian Kadazandusun voters at 38.77 per cent.

A mixed area can be loosely described as an area where there is no one particular community commanding a population majority of more than 50 per cent. The BN obtained about 62.14 per cent of the votes in mixed areas compared to the opposition 36.27 per cent at the parliamentary level. A major share of the popular votes went to Upko and Sapp in Tuaran and Sepanggar respectively while PKR obtained about 29.59 per cent. While the battle in the parliamentary mixed seats was not as decisive, the situation was different at the state level.

The opposition could have won in Inanam and Kapayan if DAP and PKR had not contested against each other. In Inanam, for instance, the combined votes of the DAP and PKR candidates could have easily toppled the BN’s candidate by well over a thousand votes. In Kapayan, the opposition could have won the seat by a convincing majority of a thousand or so votes had it decided to contest one-on-one with the BN candidate.

Overall, the BN obtained about 51.24 per cent of the popular votes while the opposition had 40.69 per cent in all the mixed seats at state level. On an individual party basis, the PKR fared relatively well, obtaining about 27.18 per cent of the votes, followed by its counterpart DAP 13.28 per cent.

Source: http://malaysiana1.blogspot.com/2008/10/analysing-sabah-election-2008.html